Abstract

The 2025 Los Angeles wildfires highlighted growing risks from climate-driven extremes and the need for reliable wildfire forecasting beyond short lead times. Although the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts provides global fire weather index forecasts, these products are primarily designed for long-range climate outlooks, and their practical effectiveness remains uncertain in regions with limited local forecasting infrastructure. Here we show that a global deep learning framework, forecasting daily fire weather index values up to 31 days ahead, consistently improves forecast accuracy and reduces bias relative to operational numerical forecasts. The framework learns nonlinear and lagged fire–weather relationships by integrating past fire weather index dynamics and future meteorological conditions. Importantly, forecast bias is reduced in 85% of grid cells where high wildfire exposure coincides with high socioeconomic vulnerability. This demonstrates that data-driven forecasting can help bridge critical information gaps in underserved regions and support more equitable climate risk management. 

Reliable wildfire forecasts become increasingly difficult beyond the first few weeks, limiting their value for medium-range decision-making. A research team, led by Professor Jungho of the Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering at UNIST, has shown that a global deep learning framework can extend reliable daily wildfire forecasts to 31 days while reducing forecast bias compared with existing operational forecasting systems.

Known as FWI-Net, the framework predicts daily values of the Fire Weather Index (FWI), a widely used measure of wildfire danger. Unlike conventional forecasting methods, it combines historical fire-weather conditions with future meteorological forecasts, allowing it to capture the cumulative effects of prolonged heat and drought on future wildfire risk.

Across the full 31-day forecasting period, FWI-Net reduced prediction error by 6.6% compared with the operational forecasting system of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). During the first week, prediction error decreased by 12.4%. The model also extended the period of meaningful forecasts under very high wildfire danger by five days.

The model performed particularly well in regions where high wildfire exposure coincides with high socioeconomic vulnerability. Forecast bias was reduced across 85% of these areas, and in regions with limited forecasting infrastructure, FWI-Net maintained useful forecasting skill for an average of 22 days.

“By combining historical fire-weather conditions with future weather forecasts, the model captures patterns that conventional forecasting systems often miss,” the research team said. “Most importantly, it provides more reliable forecasts for regions facing high wildfire risk despite limited forecasting infrastructure.”

“As climate change increases wildfire risk around the world, reliable forecasting is becoming essential for disaster preparedness,” said Professor Im. “We expect this framework to support medium-range wildfire planning while helping reduce information gaps in regions with limited forecasting capacity.”

The study was co-led by Professor Yoojin Kang of Kookmin University and Sihyun Lee of UNIST, who served as first authors. The findings were published online in Communications Earth & Environment on June 28, 2026. The research was supported by the Ministry of Environment (ME), the Korea Forest Service, and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF).

Journal Reference

Yoojin Kang, Sihyun Lee, Dongjin Cho, and Jungho Im, "Deep learning-based forecasting provides a pathway to closing wildfire information gaps in underserved regions," Commun. Earth Environment. , (2026).